2019 IS NOT FAR AWAY- Animikh Sengupta
Roughly
7 months is left for the most celebrated ‘festival’ of India which is the
General Elections. It is not an exaggeration if we say that the whole world
will be keenly following that ultimately whom does the Indians elect as their
next ‘Supreme’. Many renowned organizations have already started to give their
opinion polls ahead of the ‘MAHA YUDH’. Here we will try to give our own
perspective and analyse what can the people of the largest democracy in the
world decide in the end.
If
India Today’s Mood of the Nation survey is believed then it says that NDA will
be back in power with 281 seats which clearly shows that they will be 9 seats
ahead of the majority out of 543 total number of seats in the Lok Sabha. The
UPA will be far behind at 122 seats while the Congress will increase its tally
to 83 seats. In 2014 Elections, the Congress managed to get only 44 seats, and
if this survey is believed then in this election the Congress will increase its
vote share to 31 percent from 19% which it got in the 2014 Elections.
Now
again if we take 2014 General Elections in account, then we will see that BJP
will increase in vote share (36% from previous 31% during 2014 General
Elections) but number of seats in their favor will decrease. Now this is where
the real catch is, this is the juncture when parties like TMC, AIUDF, CPI(M)
etc will come into play. This so called ‘Others’ shall never be looked down
upon as they can be the deciders if things get neck to neck between the NDA
& UPA. This ‘Others’ group are expected to win a mammoth 140 seats in the
Lok Sabha along with 33% of the vote share.
In
nine states—Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh,
Madhya Pradesh, Manipur, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand, there will be a bipolar
contest between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP had swept these states in
2014 and won 100 out of 106 seats. Moreover, it had won 79 of these seats with
more than 50% votes.
This ‘Mahagatbandhan’ which the Congress is threatening
BJP with is yet to be tested. INC along with TMC and others form this
‘Mahagatbandhan’. This is nothing but an alliance of opposition parties headed
by INC which will unite together to defeat the BJP in LS 2019. Congress will
push allies to agree on Rahul as their PM candidate and demand maximum seat
share. I doubt allies will agree on that. SP and BSP are romancing with each
other lately and may have their secret understanding and agenda.
They will
support each other when they meet to form the GA. Congress will be reminded of
their fiasco in past assembly elections to highlight Rahul’s failure as a
leader, to push them back and to make them tone down their demands. If Congress
fails to get majority in Karnataka, it will further put them in a tight spot.
Laloo is in the Jail and after having convicted in numerous scams, his
popularity has suffered a big blow.
He cannot bring any ammo with him in GA. On
the other hand, Nitish has established himself as a progressive and development
friendly CM. Congress has virtually no hope from Bengal so even if they have GA
there, it won’t make any difference. GA will not be effective in states like
Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Himachal, Goa and Uttaranchal where none of the GA
parties have any significant vote share. The only state where GA seems to hold
some ground is UP. BJP may not be able to repeat the 2014 show. But it may make
up for the losses by good show in North East and South. So it is extremely
difficult and almost impossible to clearly say whether this ‘Mahagatbandhan’
strategy of Congress will actually work out or not to defeat the mighty BJP.
মন্তব্যসমূহ
একটি মন্তব্য পোস্ট করুন